NEW PARISH POPULATION GROWTH / DECLINE DATA April 11, 2012 9:13am
Latest U. S. Census Bureau annual population estimates show more of the same for Northwest Louisiana parishes: Bossier Parish with largest population gains, DeSoto and Webster Parishes growing very little, and Caddo not much better.
Between July 1, 2010 and July 1, 2011, Census Bureau data show Bossier’s population grew by 2,189, +1.9%, and Caddo Parish added 1,438 people, +0.6%. Population growth in Webster Parish was 45 new residents, a +0.1% gain, and DeSoto Parish added 80 people, +0.3%.
“Official population estimates” from the Census Bureau are derived from a mix of data sources, key among which are actual birth and death data gathered by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and for the population migration component of the Estimates, from the Bureau’s American Community Survey data.
For those who care to know more about the methodology of Census Estimates, here is detail from the Bureau.
The Picture Back to 1980
In my work on this and related subjects, I stress that any such data is best viewed over much longer periods of time. For us, the meaningful expanded view is back to the 1980 Census, the last Census before our state and local economies were severely damaged by the so-called “drying up of the oil patch.” a hit from which many Louisiana parishes have yet to recover.
Between the 1980 Census and these latest, July 1, 2011 official Estimates:
Bossier Parish population grew from 80,721 to 119,732 residents, +48.3%, an average annual increase of +1.53%.
Caddo Parish grew from 252,358 to 257,051, +1.9%, an average annual increase of +0.06%.
DeSoto Parish grew from 25,727 to 26,812, +4.2%, an average annual increase of +0.13%.
Webster Parish lost from 43,631 to 41,298, a loss of -5.3%, an average annual loss of -0.17%.
Louisiana’s population grew from 4,205,900 to 4,574,836, +8.8%, an average annual gain of +0.28%.
U. S. population grew during the period from 226,545,805 to 311,591,917, +37.5%, an average annual gain of +1.19%.
Differences and Comparisons in More Descriptive Terms
Bossier Parish’s population gain in the most recent reporting year is 3.1-times the population gain of Caddo Parish. That is not, however, nearly as dramatic as the view back to 1980: over the past 31.5 years, the Bossier Parish population grew 25.4-times as much, or as fast, as Caddo Parish. In fact, Bossier is one of only 8 parishes of Louisiana’s 64 with total population growth stronger than the nation as a whole.
Louisiana’s population change over the most recent reporting year – +0.6% – is slightly below the nation’s population growth of +0.7%. Going back to 1980, however, the national population growth rate has been 4.3-times that of our state’s population growth.
Is the Bossier Parish Population Growth Advantage Over Caddo Parish About to End?
Louisiana’s population growth rate has been shown in various studies to be far less than states without a state income tax, especially given that two of those states are very near, Texas and Florida. It is my analysis and belief that the same general point can be made about Bossier Parish’s benefit over the years from notably lower property tax rates than those in across-the-Red neighbor Caddo Parish.
Later this month, however, Bossier may join Caddo and many, many other places in jumping aboard the Tax-and-Spending Express, which can speedily head into population stagnation.
With total public school property taxes in Bossier at just over 52-mills, Caddo’s highest-in-the state millage of over 78-mills is 50% higher. Even for Shreveport and Caddo’s many high-tax apologists, that, as they say, ain’t peanuts: Caddo’s half-again-as-high as Bossier property taxes have no doubt contributed greatly to its devastating population out-migration to Bossier and elsewhere … for decades.
If, in a couple of weeks, Bossier voters pass the Bossier Parish School Board’s tax package, and then follow by approving renewals of other property tax millages coming up in the next couple of years, its property tax will rise to over 70-mills.
With the possibility in the near future, therefore, of lower public school property taxes in Caddo (if Independent School Districts become fact), and with Bossier possibly jumping into the “government only knows how to grow and tax” sinkhole, all things about comparative taxes between the two neighboring parishes may well even-out, if not shift to a Caddo Parish advantage.
(The conventional wisdom – and loud claim in Bossier – that BPSB public schools are far better than CPSB’s bears closer scrutiny. Even without it, for present purposes, the BPSB’s state-issued grade of “C” and CPSB’s “D” (Report is here) means that neither system can claim to be a shining educational light for its children. Each system features a relative few very good schools, some very bad ones, and a lot somewhere in between. CPSB’s high number of failing urban schools is the difference. In any case, changes just passed by the legislature will upset all such grade measures, as will the impending state-takeover of many of Caddo’s failing urban schools.)
Thus, Well-Justified Opposition to the BPSB Plan by the Bossier Chamber of Commerce
Some of you may know that the Bossier Chamber of Commerce has announced its opposition to the BPSB tax-and-spend plan. Given data I reported to you a few months ago about how relatively little school enrollment increase there has been over time in Bossier, or anywhere else in our neck of the woods, the Chamber’s position makes very good sense. ‘Fact is, the BPSB is about to embark on a building spree that is unjustified by objective data: its strong population gains have not been proportionate among school-aged children, and cannot be expected to be in the future, either. As is often the case, this is about one taxing entity – BPSB – grabbing up any possible tax increase “slack” (?) before other taxing entities – Bossier City, Bossier Parish Police Jury, Sheriff’s office, etc. – can do so.
Congratulations to the Bossier Chamber for having the courage to do what is rarely done anywhere, and NEVER done in the Free State of Bossier: oppose the local political Bossmen and the lust among most government officials to tax-tax-tax and spend-spend-spend.
Bossier has had a very fortuitous run for a quarter-century or so, but it is not immune from the disease of relatively “rich” cities and parishes taxing and spending themselves into protracted decline.
If Bossier folk need a nearby example to study and see the future with high taxes, they need look no further than their next-door neighbor across Red River, where the population has grown a dismal 1.9% since President Jimmy Carter was voted out of office.
Elliott Stonecipher’s reports, essays and commentaries are written strictly in the public interest. No compensation of any kind has been solicited, offered or accepted for this work.
EVETS MANAGEMENT SERVICES, INC.
6658 Youree Drive
Suite 180, #367
Shreveport, LA 71105
As taken from the Forward Now! website
Recently in the news there was a lot of fear-mongering going around about SB1867, now HR1540, in what the Congress was trying to sneak into a budget bill for the military. There where cries of tyranny, Gestapo like concentration camps on American soil, and our last basic liberties being stripped away with the stroke of a pen. But the President is threatening to veto this bill. If he is such a big government, no rights for the people, controlling nanny-state president, why would he threaten to veto a bill that would supposedly give him the power to throw his enemies in jail with no right to a trial or use the military against those said enemies? This was a very interesting conundrum and the RRTP Research Group went in search of why this bill was being blasted in the MSM as the Bill to Kill The Bill of Rights by many blogs and news articles, this is what they found;
SB 1867, now HR1540, is the NDAA National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 is to authorize appropriations for fiscal year 2012 for military activities of the Department of Defense, for military construction, and for defense activities of the Department of Energy, to prescribe military personnel strengths for such fiscal year, and for other purposes.
This bill is 1227 pages in length. Our Research Group combed through every line. They found no language that would cause Americans, especially TEA Party activists, to be overly concerned.
So why the big hoopla about this bill? The problem was that people believed it was going to detain American citizens but, the reality is in subtitle D section 1032 part b 1. The requirement to detain a person in military custody under this section does not extend to citizens of the United States. With clear language like that, how could anyone believe this was going to throw just anybody in jail?
Another problem with this bill was it may give the President unwarranted power to use the military against the U.S. citizenry, there by violating Posse Comitastus. In section 1031 1(D) Construction- Nothing in this section is intended to limit or expand the authority of the President or the scope of the Authorization for Use of Military Force. 1(E) Authorities- Nothing in this section shall be construed to affect existing law or authorities, relating to the detention of United States citizens, lawful resident aliens of the United States or any other persons who are captured or arrested in the United States.
The bill does state, in specific language, who can be detained. In subtitle D section 1031 1B 1. A person who planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored those responsible for those attacks. 2. A person who was a part of or substantially supported al-Qaeda, the Taliban, or associated forces that are engaged in hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners, including any person who has committed a belligerent act or has directly supported such hostilities in aid of such enemy forces.
The rest of the bill is related to the various needs for the military to work under monetary constraints. Basically, how to divide up the monetary pie. Nowhere in the bill is there a need for citizens to feel as if their rights are being torn to shreds or that the Bill of Rights has been trampled upon, that happened with the Patriot Act and the implementation of the TSA.
The shear amount of vitriol toward this bill is in and of its self suspect. Usually where there is smoke there is fire, but this bill doesn’t even come close to being an ember. The Congressional members that are for defending Americans, on American soil, where VERY specific as to what language went into this bill. They have tried to put out that knowledge, but it does not play to the MSM narrative so it is drowned out by the nay-sayers. And unfortunately, a lot of people have jumped on the MSM bandwagon about this particular bill.
What the RRTP Research Group came up with is this bill sounds scary, but in reality it is not. The RRTP Research Group will continue to dig into bills like this as they come up.